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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers ascending together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still